Alabama

If the race was effectively a tie for the Senate, that means about 15% of the Alabama voters – assuming all turnout effects wash out – were not so wedded to anti-abortion versus sex offender. I don’t think you can take more out of the election. If I were the Alabama GOP, I’d immediately launch a recall – if they can do it in that state – because any other candidate would have won. By the same token, if a pro-life Democrat had won, I imagine he/she would have won by 10 points. (Note: I looked up recall and it isn’t likely to be allowed because the Constitution sets terms and elections for specific offices and that is taken to mean those are the only elections allowed. Not sure that’s true but it has never been tested.)